Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

Nicolas Degallier; Charly Favier; Christophe Menkes; Matthieu Lengaigne; Walter M. Ramalho; Régilo Souza; Jacques Servain; Jean-Philippe Boulanger

doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9747-3

Climatic Change

February 2010, Volume 98, Issue 3, pp 581–592

Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

Authors
Authors and affiliations

Nicolas DegallierEmail author
Charly Favier
Christophe Menkes
Matthieu Lengaigne
Walter M. Ramalho
Régilo Souza
Jacques Servain
Jean-Philippe Boulanger

Article

First Online:: 20 October 2009

Received:: 23 June 2008
Accepted:: 30 December 2008

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9747-3

Cite this article as:: Degallier, N., Favier, C., Menkes, C. et al. Climatic Change (2010) 98: 581. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9747-3

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Abstract

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.

Abbreviations

EWS: Early warning systems
GCM: Global circulation models

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Copyright information

Authors and Affiliations

Nicolas Degallier
- 1
Email author
Charly Favier
- 2
Christophe Menkes
- 1
Matthieu Lengaigne
- 1
Walter M. Ramalho
- 3
Régilo Souza
- 3
Jacques Servain
- 1
- 4
Jean-Philippe Boulanger
- 1

1.LOCEAN-IPSLInstitut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)Paris cedex 05France
2.Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution (UMR CNRS 5554)Université Montpellier II-pl. E. BataillonMontpellier cedex 05France
3.SVS-MS, Esplanada dos Ministérios, Bloco GBrasíliaBrazil
4.Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos (FUNCEME)FortalezaBrazil

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Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

Abstract

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