Ecological Complexity

Volume 2, Issue 4, December 2005, Pages 357–394

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

  • a U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, 700 Cajundome Boulevard, Lafayette, LA 70506, USA
  • b U.S. Geological Survey, Great Lakes Science Center, 1451 Green Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, USA
  • c U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, 2150 Centre Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
  • d U.S. Geological Survey, Glacier National Park Headquarters, West Glacier, MT 59936-0128, USA
  • e U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, 1231 East Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523-1499, USA
  • f California State University, Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Chico, CA 95929-0205, USA
  • g U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 1011 East Tudor Road, Anchorage, AK 99503-6119, USA
  • h U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station, Los Alamos, NM 87544, USA
  • i U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 400 North 34th Street, Seattle, WA 98103, USA
  • j Natural Resources Consultants, Inc., 1900 West Nickerson Street, Suite 201, Seattle, WA 98119, USA
Received 12 November 2004, Revised 15 April 2005, Accepted 19 April 2005, Available online 13 September 2005

Abstract

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Keywords

  • Nonlinear dynamics;
  • Thresholds;
  • Ecosystems;
  • Climate change;
  • Natural resource management
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 337 266 8500; fax: +1 337 266 8610.

Published by Elsevier B.V.