Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
- a School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
- b College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UK
- c Alfred Wegener Institute, Bussestrasse 24, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
- d School of Earth and Environment, The University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
- e Department of Mathematics, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol BS8 1TW, UK
- f NCAS-Climate, Meteorology Building, University of Reading, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
- g Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB,UK
- Received 18 November 2011, Revised 7 April 2012, Accepted 17 April 2012, Available online 18 May 2012
- Editor: P. DeMenocal
Abstract
A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.
Highlights
► Coupled ice sheet-cavity circulation flowline model. ► Statistical framework using “confidence set” for calibrated prediction. ► Predict large uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier behaviour to year 2200. ► Full collapse of Pine Island Glacier main trunk soon after 2100 is not ruled out.
Keywords
- West Antarctic ice sheet;
- Pine Island Glacier;
- calibrated prediction;
- marine ice sheet instability;
- ice sheet modelling
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