Geophysical Research Letters
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Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts

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This article is corrected by:

  1. Errata: Correction to “Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts” Volume 34, Issue 24, Article first published online: 21 December 2007

Abstract

[1] We obtain new insights into the reliability of long-term historical Atlantic tropical cyclone (‘TC’) counts through the use of a statistical model that relates variations in annual Atlantic TC counts to climate state variables. We find that the existence of a substantial undercount bias in late 19th through mid 20th century TC counts is inconsistent with the statistical relationship between TC counts and climate.

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Article Information

DOI

10.1029/2007GL031781

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Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

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Keywords

  • hurricanes;
  • tropical cyclones;
  • biases

Publication History

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  • Version of record online:
  • Manuscript Accepted:
  • Manuscript Revised:
  • Manuscript Received:

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Supporting Information

Auxiliary material for this article contains seven figures.

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FilenameDescription
grl23895-sup-0001-readme.txtplain text document, 2Kreadme.txt
grl23895-sup-0002-fs01.tifTIFF image, 308KFigure S1. Percentage of all reported TCs that struck land over 1851–2006.
grl23895-sup-0003-fs02.epsPS document, 29KFigure S2. As in Figures 4a–c of manuscript, but using HadISST SST for MDR SST and Nino3.4 index.
grl23895-sup-0004-fs03.epsPS document, 29KFigure S3. As in Figures 4a–c of manuscript, but using Kaplan et al. SST for MDR SST and Nino3.4 index.
grl23895-sup-0005-fs04.epsPS document, 30KFigure S4. As in Figures 4a–c of manuscript, but using ERSST product for MDR SST and Nino3.4 index.
grl23895-sup-0006-fs05.epsPS document, 30KFigure S5. As in Figures 4a–c of manuscript, but using bivariate statistical model with only MDR SST and Nino3.4 as statistical predictors.
grl23895-sup-0007-fs06.epsPS document, 29KFigure S6. As in Figures 4a–c of manuscript, but using Nino3 index in place of Nino3.4 index to represent ENSO influences.
grl23895-sup-0008-fs07.epsPS document, 30KFigure S7. As in Figure 4 of manuscript but with breakpoint taken as 1938 rather than 1943.
grl23895-sup-0009-t01.txtplain text document, 1KTab-delimited Table 1.

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  10. 10Lawrence M Kiage, Daniel Deocampo, Terrence A. Mccloskey, Thomas A. Bianchette, Melissa Hursey, A 1900-year paleohurricane record from Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA, Journal of Quaternary Science, 2011, 26, 7, 714Wiley Online Library
  11. 11Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas R. Knutson, Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density, Journal of Climate, 2011, 24, 6, 1736CrossRef
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  13. 13Iris Grossmann, M. Granger Morgan, Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?, Climatic Change, 2011, 108, 3, 543CrossRef
  14. 14Hiroyuki Murakami, Bin Wang, Future Change of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks: Projection by a 20-km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model*, Journal of Climate, 2010, 23, 10, 2699CrossRef
  15. 15Christopher W. Landsea, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Lennart Bengtsson, Thomas R. Knutson, Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts*, Journal of Climate, 2010, 23, 10, 2508CrossRef
  16. 16Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A. Vecchi, James A. Smith, Modeling the Dependence of Tropical Storm Counts in the North Atlantic Basin on Climate Indices, Monthly Weather Review, 2010, 138, 7, 2681CrossRef
  17. 17Thomas R. Knutson, John L. McBride, Johnny Chan, Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Chris Landsea, Isaac Held, James P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, Masato Sugi, Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3, 3, 157CrossRef
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  19. 19Petr Chylek, Glen Lesins, Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007, Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008, 113, D22Wiley Online Library
  20. 20Andrew R. Solow, Andrew R. Beet, On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35, 11Wiley Online Library

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