Article
Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict?
aUniversity of Massachusetts, Department of Biology, Boston, MA 02125, USA.
bUSDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA.
cHarvard University, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA 01366, USA.
dDartmouth College, Biological Sciences, Gilman Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, USA.
eBoston University, Biology Department, 5 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
fUniversity of Massachusetts, Department of Plant, Soil, and Insect Sciences, 270 Stockbridge Road, Amherst, MA 01003-9320, USA.
gCanadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320 122 Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada.
hUniversity of Massachusetts, Natural Resource Conservation, 318 Holdsworth, Amherst, MA 01003, USA.
iCook College, Rutgers University, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
jState University of New York, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Life Science Building, Stony Brook, NY 11794-5245, USA.
kUniversity of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences and Department of Biology, Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Road, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4123, USA.
lUniversity of Massachusetts, Department of Microbiology, 203 Morrill Science Center IVN, 639 North Pleasant Street, Amherst, MA 01003-9320, USA.
Published on the web 30 January 2009.
Received January 25, 2008. Accepted October 1, 2008.
This article is one of a selection of papers from NE Forests 2100: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada.
Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2009, 39(2): 231-248, 10.1139/X08-171
Abstract
Climate models project that by 2100, the northeastern US and eastern Canada will warm by approximately 3–5 °C, with increased winter precipitation. These changes will affect trees directly and also indirectly through effects on “nuisance” species, such as insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. We review how basic ecological principles can be used to predict nuisance species’ responses to climate change and how this is likely to impact northeastern forests. We then examine in detail the potential responses of two pest species (hemlock woolly adelgid (
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