Climate change is perhaps the most controversial environmental issue of recent times. Despite uncertainty about either its cause or ultimate magnitude, the potential impact suggests that scenarios of possible changes should be incorporated into future planning. Yet communities continue to settle, develop and invest in hazardous locations along the coast. Through a case study of Suffolk County on Long Island, New York, this research explores three scenarios to model climatic conditions over the next few decades. GIS, geophysical data, land use, housing and economic characteristics, and storm history are combined to estimate potential losses, in both absolute and relative terms. Findings suggest that potential absolute and relative losses will increase from 5.5 to 8.6 per cent compared to current expected losses. Though rather small proportional increases, these translate to an additional USD500 million in losses compared to a no climate change scenario, with significant spatial variations throughout the county. Understanding where and how much climate change may affect local flooding is critical to recognizing the need for adaptive measures. What has been missing in much research is the ability to translate climate change models into local planning priorities. This study relies on existing data and rather straightforward models that can be applied at many locations and, as a result, is a first step in moving toward local application of the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an American context.